Trump 2.0: We’re all suckers and losers if we don’t push back

It’s been 12 days since my last Substack post entitled “Trump v. SCOTUS: From a soft-coup to a hard-coup?” A lot has happened in the past few days, which makes it difficult to focus on a single issue. I spent a considerable amount of time reorienting my intended audience from those who do not support Trump’s executive orders to those who voted for Trump but did not believe he would engage in illegal actions to achieve his ends. But after attempting several drafts intended for these Trump voters, in which I bent over backwards to recognize how progressives had overreached and failed to address “kitchen table issues” that are crucial to voters outside Washington, I found my drafts to be completely unconvincing. Every time I attempted to make a rational argument, for example that Trump voters are supporting policies that run counter to their own self-interest, I realized that I was engaged in a fool’s errand. Most Trump voters want to shrink government, to attack the deep state, to stop foreign aid, and to eliminate DEI programs.

What I am banking on is that these Trump voters, who by and large are good law-abiding people, don’t want chaos in THEIR lives, or an economic fiasco in THEIR lives, or the suspension of the constitution itself in THEIR lifetimes. Trump is treating us all, no matter whether we voted for him or not, as suckers and losers (just like the soldiers who died on D-Day). But I’ve decided to pivot back to readers who are rebelling against Trump’s executive orders and are seeking ways to hold onto the form of government that has served our country well for 236 years. It’s time to mobilize those who can see what’s coming, who don’t suffer from a “failure of imagination”, and who are motivated to prepare for the worst and (hopefully) prevent it from happening. They can work to protect us all, including the Trump voters who didn’t ask for the extreme version of Trump 2.0.

It’s pretty clear that the Democrats were unprepared for the onslaught of Trump’s executive orders, their sinister intent, and the cruelty of their outcomes. While there has been a well-organized set of lawsuits, from the ACLU and state Attorneys General, there is a combination of clever legal maneuvering (a whack-a-mole strategy to slow down judicial rulings) and outright defiance of court ordered injunctions. For example, when the temporary injunction that halted the freeze in awarding NIH grants was issued, the Trump team found a backdoor way to achieve the same goal because of a statute that requires the grant awards to be published in the Federal Register (to ensure open-meeting requirements) prior to dispensing the funds. Defund the Federal Register – mission accomplished. And when the judge who implemented the temporary injunction to halt the freeze on NIH grants was ignored, his demand to obey his injunction was met with requests for clarification that were clearly intended to delay implementation of the injunction despite the judge’s clear directive.

But this is classic Trump – he uses all the legal processes and protections built into our system of government to prevent that very same government (which he hates) from doing its job. Evil genius kind of stuff – use the legal system that “unfairly” prosecutes you to allow you to de facto break the law. And this strategy was given a boost by the July 1, 2024 Supreme Court presidential immunity ruling, which by a 6-3 majority concluded:

“The President therefore may not be prosecuted for exercising his core constitutional powers, and he is entitled, at a minimum, to a presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts.”

This ruling licensed Trump 2.0 to follow the dictate of expediency: “Ask for forgiveness, not for permission”, but with a twist – forget about the forgiveness part.

Let’s take a deep dive into two questions: (1) what’s really going on here, and (2) how will it end? Buckle up. This is going to get very dark and scary. You need to be prepared for a set of events that are almost beyond imagination. The only good news is that Trump 2.0 will fail if we remain vigilant, do not give him an inch, and retain our faith in the fundamental instinct that people will fight for their survival.

What is Trump’s goal?

In contrast to Steve Bannon, whose goal is to end government, Donald Trump’s goal is to steal from government. The “constitution” to which he has sworn his allegiance is unlimited wealth, and the key to achieve his goal is to obtain unfettered power. In his first term, his focus was twofold: (1) undermine the power of the press that tries to hold him to account, and (2) shift the balance on the Supreme Court to enable him, except in rare circumstances, to escape from legal jeopardy. Both of those missions were accomplished, with a big assist from Mitch McConnell, and further strengthened during his four years out of office with the rise of alternative news outlets, such as OAN and Newsmax, and the presidential immunity decision by SCOTUS last year. And then just prior to last November’s election he managed to gain the support of the major social media platforms (Meta, X) and several editorial boards of major newspapers (LA Times, Washington Post). They not only removed all limits on misinformation, but they removed their editorial endorsement of his opponent in anticipation of his retribution if Trump won – what Timothy Snyder calls “anticipatory obedience.”

Importantly, Trump had the perfect ally in his quest to steal from the government: Elon Musk. Trump is not a technocrat; his small circle of business associates don’t even use email (in part to avoid a paper trail). So, he not only needed a tech-bro, but also a very, very rich benefactor who would cover any fines or legal expenses once he set in motion his money grab. Musk proved his bone fides by contributing $200 million to Trump’s get-out-the-vote effort last Fall, so Trump was pretty sure he would continue to be his piggy bank. And in turn Musk had much to gain from his new role as commissar of DOGE. Not only could he have fun doing what he does best – firing people and putting the fear of god into them to increase productivity – but he would gain access to two things that he desperately needs to allow his businesses to flourish: (1) rare earth metals for batteries, and (2) guaranteed government contracts to support SpaceX and Starlink.

If there was any doubt about Trump’s goal (no longer “stop the steal” but “full steal ahead”), consider a few of the many statements and executive orders in his first two weeks in office.

• Greenland – rare earth metals for Elon. Trump’s acolytes in Congress actually filed a bill in the House (H.R. 1161: Red, White, and Blueland Act of 2025 – this is not a joke).

• Panama – control of world-wide shipping. It was not, as Trump claimed, about reducing the fees paid to Panama for U.S. warships, but the ability to determine which commercial ships could traverse the canal, in what order, and with what delays. That is a huge lever in manipulating the global economy, especially after Trump’s executive order that halted enforcement of the 1977 Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, a pause which makes bribery of foreign entities legal.

• Deregulating cryptocurrency – this is so obviously to Trump’s benefit he should mint a coin with his face on it. Banks will no longer loan money to Trump’s real estate company, so what better way to gain access to capital. Just yesterday the SEC dropped a lawsuit against a crypto exchange that was accused of violating regulations, opening the flood gates to dark money (i.e., money laundering). So much for the emoluments clause of the constitution (Article 1, Section 9, clause 8): “No person holding any office of profit or trust under them, shall, without the consent of the Congress, accept of any present, emolument, office, or title, of any kind whatever, from any king, prince or foreign state.”

• Pressuring Ukrainian President Zelensky to “bring the war to an end”. Did you find it strange that Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent (not Secretary of State Marco Rubio) offered Zelensky a “deal” last week in which future military support would be contingent upon, you guessed it, rare earth metals for Elon.

The current spat between Trump and Zelensky has a history because Zelensky would not play ball with Trump in 2019 when he wanted dirt on Joe and Hunter Biden – leading to Trump’s first impeachment. But even though Trump engages in retribution for personal reasons (e.g., removing security protection for past enemies like Anthony Fauci, John Bolton, and Mark Milley), in this case his motivation for dropping support for Ukraine is more craven – he wants the war with Russia to end so that … wait for it … he can reopen trade with Russia. This would not only allow Trump and his associates to enter into real estate deals with Putin (self-serving but not that profitable), but to allow American companies to sell products to Russia and provide Putin with access to Starlink. In return, Putin gets to claim victory in a war that killed 850,000 soldiers and, most importantly, restores his ability to sell oil and gas to Europe instead of relying on the Black Market. Putin needs cash to recover from the Biden/NATO sanctions and restock his military (Kim Jong Un’s assistance was not sufficient). Ending the war quickly would be a huge win for Putin, which is why Trump is ramping up pressure on Zelensky to take it or leave it.

Here are two more examples of the money grab. Why did Trump pause the implementation of the ban on TikTok, which was approved by the House and the Senate, and why did he propose (without even talking to Netanyahu) that Gaza should be taken over by the U.S. and developed into Club Med? Money, money, money. If Trump was actually concerned about national security, he would follow through with the Right-Left consensus that China is a major threat to our democracy. And he would care about the prospect that in a few years those 15-year-old Gazan teenagers will become jihadists out to reclaim their land and revenge the deaths of their parents. But as noted above, Trump does not swear allegiance to OUR constitution, but rather to HI$ constitution. And if you think Musk is not selling our private information grabbed from the government servers at Treasury, the IRS, and HHS to other governments in return for access to their rare earth metals, well you haven’t been paying attention. DOGE is a smoke screen for making money, not saving money.

Trump voters are holding firm so far

So far, Trump 2.0 is humming along as planned, minus a few idiotic glitches, like firing people who protect our nuclear arsenal and not having their cell phone numbers so they could be called back to work. But the courts are doing their usual slow and steady, allowing government workers to be fired and legislation passed by Congress to be ignored, with some modest success in getting lower courts to issue temporary injunctions. Most of these initial targets for cutting waste, fraud, and abuse were completely fine with the average Trump voter.

• Why should universities charge more for indirect costs than private foundations?

• Hell yes, fire those IRS clerks who scrutinize my tax returns.

• Get all those deep state employees out of Washington DC.

• He’s finally getting rid of all those insulting DEI programs that benefit everyone but me.

• Saving the lives of people in Africa is not more important than lowering grocery prices in the U.S. and keeping our borders safe (as long as there is no Ebola outbreak).

Most of the executive orders, despite their chaotic roll out, are resonating pretty well with Trump voters. They are willing to give him a few more weeks to clean up occasional mistakes, but unfortunately the economic impact will soon seep into the Red states. Firings and layoffs outside Washington DC, where 80% of government workers live, will affect local communities, mortgage default rates, school budgets, and companies that rely on immigrant workers. Unemployment claims will spike and inflation will tick up as grocery prices rise. But I expect Trump voters will cut him some slack through the Summer months, especially when they implement Musk’s recently floated idea of “giving back” 20% of what they claimed to have saved by the DOGE cuts. Don’t you love it? In 2017 the Trump tax cuts gave an average of $500 per year to middle class families and an average of $60,000 to the top 1%. So now the obvious goal of the DOGE cuts is to allow room for the 2017 tax cuts to continue beyond their expiration date in 2025, enabling the claim that the tax cuts did not explode the national debt.

But here is where Trump 2.0 made some unforced errors. First, pardoning the January 6^th rioters who were convicted of violent crimes or were clearly attempting a hostile takeover of Congress was a dumb move. Those pardons really upset the vast majority of the law enforcement community who believe in the rule of law and cannot tolerate violence against police officers. Although the rank-and-file and their union representatives expressed discomfort with these pardons, they have not protested more forcefully. But make no mistake, when Trump attempts further illegal actions that threaten the safety of the police or are in clear violation of the constitution, the vast majority of them will not be on his side.

Second, the most recent DOGE cuts that began two days ago in the Defense sector were even dumber. This is a huge strategic blunder, not just because the majority of the military are supportive of Trump’s goals, but because they swore an oath to OUR constitution not Trump’s constitution. The fact that Trump is the commander in chief does not mean that soldiers must obey illegal orders. And the fact that many defense department cuts toss military families to the street, strangely encouraged by Pete Hegseth (who is viewed by most of the military as an unqualified low-level soldier dressed in a fancy Fox News suit), will not go over well with the rank-and-file. Particularly ham-handed was the DOGE targeting of “probationary” defense department employees. Many of them are the spouses of career officers who, by policy, move every two years. Despite being employed without interruption for a decade or more, many of these employees labeled as “probationary” were in fact dedicated career servants. So, just like the police, when push comes to shove, the vast majority of the military are not going to line up on Trump’s side of a constitutional power grab.

What’s coming next?

The watchword for Trump 2.0 is hubris – excessive self-confidence. He often remarks to his voters that he dodged a bullet, literally, in Pennsylvania because of divine intervention. When someone believes they are infallible, they take risks because they have no fear of failure or the consequences of their actions. The problem with Trump’s second in command, Elon Musk, is his conviction that running a government is just like running a business. The differences, of course, are massive. You can fire workers like he did at Twitter, and which he is doing as the DOGE-master, but you can’t quickly replace them and continue to deliver quality service. Governments need to be fail safe – you can afford to have a rocket blow up at SpaceX, but blowing up an economy will lead to a revolt.

As the tariffs, bird flu, firings and layoffs, and decline in government services become a reality to the average Trump voter, approval ratings will start to head south as inflation and prices head north. When the polls indicate that Mike Johnson will be replaced as Speaker of the House by Hakeem Jeffries as the Democrats win back the majority in 2026, Trump will realize that his illegal and unconstitutional actions will result in a third impeachment. Of course, the Republicans in the Senate, who could easily have convicted him in 2021 but took Mitch McConnell’s advice to let the people decide, will look the other way – again – and give him a pass. But when Trump thumbs his nose at rulings by the Supreme Court that he violated the Impoundment Control Act of 1974, meaning that he cannot cut agencies, create new agencies, or reduce budgets of agencies that were authorized by the Legislative Branch, they will come to the realization that they have been made irrelevant. But again, Republican senators will probably be OK with being irrelevant if they remain in Trump’s good graces and retain the perks of their office. What will push them over the edge is what comes next.

How will this nightmare end?

As the midterm elections approach in September of 2026, and all the polls show the Democrats with a clear advantage in the House, Stephen Miller will panic and recommend to Trump that he must declare a National Emergency. This act, approved by Congress in 1976, gives the president enormous powers (see Elizabeth Goitein’s article in the Atlantic in 2019). It has been invoked several times (e.g., 9/11) and Trump can point to the fact that even Obama allowed it to continue, although it was focused on threats from foreign terrorists.

Trump will claim that the election is rigged – again – and that it must be paused. This will cause a huge uproar, but there is nothing short of impeachment that can overturn a declaration of a National Emergency. Of course, the voters will not stand for this, and there will be protests (hopefully non-violent). But Trump 1.0 did not tolerate BLM protests even when they were non-violent. So Trump’s next move will be to declare Martial Law to quell the protests and affirm his pause in the election. And this is when the Republican senators will have had enough. They will think back to 2022 when the former head of the Chinese Communist Party, Hu Jintao, questioned the authority of Xi Jinping, resulting in him being physically removed from the Chinese Assembly while his fellow government officials pretended not to see what was happening before their very eyes.

Even the most ardent Trump supporters in Congress will rebel at these desperate moves by Trump to remain in power. The House will quickly impeach Trump and the Senate will convict him by a 2/3 vote. But because of the 25^th Amendment to the Constitution, J. D. Vance will automatically be elevated to the presidency, unless he too is impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate. Vance is a pretty savvy character who has already morphed from Trump hater to Trump lover. So who knows how he will play this out.

A wild card in this endgame is how the Proud Boys and other militia groups will respond. This could become a true test of the military – a portion of them will side with Trump and the insurrectionists, but hopefully the vast majority, for reasons summarized above, will do the right thing and hold true to their Oath of Enlistment: “I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.”

One final intriguing and scary possibility is this. When the House and Senate are in session during Trump’s impeachment and Trial, Trump could implement a provision of the Constitution in Article II, Section 3, which states a little known and never used power of the President:

“he may, on extraordinary occasions, convene both houses, or either of them, and in case of disagreement between them, with respect to the time of adjournment, he may adjourn them to such time as he shall think proper.”

A technical reading of this section narrows the president’s adjournment power only to a disagreement about when to adjourn. But Trump’s lawyers are undoubtedly ginning up a broader interpretation that claims he has the power to adjourn Congress at his discretion for any reason. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the broader interpretation, this is where things could get violent. Trump could try, before the Senate convicts him, to permanently adjourn the Senate – essentially a pre-emptive pardon. This would be a second attempt at thumbing his nose at the constitution – first by ignoring an earlier ruling by the Supreme Court that limits his power of the purse, and second by dissolving the legislative body that has the power to remove him from office.

At this point we have to hope that those police officers and members of the military who swore an oath to the constitution will forcibly remove Trump from the White House. They will undoubtedly have to do so over the objections of Pam Bondi and Kash Patel. But if they fail to act to defend our constitution, then our only recourse is civil disobedience.

Remember, all you suckers and losers, it’s all about the money. Don’t be fooled by his policies or his rhetoric. NY Times columnist Zeynep Tufecki reminded us recently of this prophetic quote from Thomas Jefferson in 1784:

“The public money and public liberty, intended to have been deposited with three branches of magistracy [executive, legislative, judicial], but found inadvertently to be in the hands of one only, will soon be discovered to be sources of wealth and dominion to those who hold them; distinguished too by this tempting circumstance, that they are the instrument, as well as the object of acquisition. With money we will get men, said Caesar, and with men we will get money.”

“Nor should our assembly [Congress] be deluded by the integrity of their own purposes, and conclude that these unlimited powers will never be abused, because themselves are not disposed to abuse them. They should look forward to a time, and that not a distant one, when corruption in this, as in the country from which we derive our origin, will have seized the heads of government, and be spread by them through the body of the people; when they will purchase the voices of the people, and make them pay the price. Human nature is the same on every side of the Atlantic, and will be alike influenced by the same causes. The time to guard against corruption and tyranny, is before they shall have gotten hold on us. It is better to keep the wolf out of the fold, than to trust to drawing his teeth and talons after he shall have entered.”